张译;杨伯钢;王淼;黄迎春;杨旭东;

• 1:北京市测绘设计研究院
• 2:城市空间信息工程北京市重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

为了解决京津冀地区林地变化驱动力在空间上研究不足的问题,该文利用京津冀地区1995年与2010年土地利用面板数据,分析了京津冀地区林地的空间变化特征,选取可能影响林地空间变化的因素,分析了影响林地空间变化的驱动机制。通过构建栅格面积成分数据,计算测度空间相关性的Moran's I指数,检测林地变化的空间相关性,更准确提取出主要影响京津冀地区林地变化的因子。研究表明,京津冀地区林地的变化存在较强的空间相关性,且坡度、DEM、到京津冀边界的距离等与林地的空间变化呈正相关,到原有耕地、建设用地的距离与林地空间的变化呈负相关。该研究为京津冀地区林地保护政策的制定与实施提供决策依据,研究方法同时适用于全国其他地区的林地驱动力研究。

关键词(KeyWords)： 林地;空间变化;驱动力;Moran's I;SAR模型;京津冀

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 城市空间信息工程北京市重点实验室经费资助项目(2019101)

作者(Authors): 张译;杨伯钢;王淼;黄迎春;杨旭东;

DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2020.09.016

参考文献(References)：

• [1] 王洪波.中国林地现代管理模式关键问题研究与实践探索[D].北京:北京林业大学,2012.(WANG Hongbo.The study and practice of forestland modern management mode and the key issue in China[D].Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2012.)
• [2] 张伟.国有林地流转制度研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2012.(ZHANG Wei.Study on state-owned forest land circulation institution[D].Harbin:Northeast Agricultural University,2012.)
• [3] XIE X,XIE H L,FAN Y H.Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of forest change from 1985—2000 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2016,7(4):301-308.
• [4] 邓祥征,姜群鸥,战金艳,等.中国东北地区森林覆被变化的原因与趋势[J].地理学报,2010,65(2):224-234.(DENG Xiangzheng,JIANG Qunou,ZHAN Jinyan,et al.Causes and trends of forestry area change in Northeast China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(2):224-234.)
• [5] 李强,任志远.基于Logistic回归分析的土地利用变化空间统计与模拟[J].统计与信息论坛,2012,27(3):98-103.(LI Qiang,REN Zhiyuan.Spatial statistics and simulation of land use change based on binary logistic regression[J].Statistics and Information Forum,2012,27(3):98-103.)
• [6] 谢花林.基于Logistic回归模型的区域生态用地演变影响因素分析:以京津冀地区为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(11):2063-2070.(XIE Hualin.Analysis of regionally ecological land use and its influencing factors based on a logistic regression model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China[J].Resources Science,2011,33(11):2063-2070.)
• [7] 金浩然,马萍萍,刘盛和.林地变化驱动力研究中逻辑回归模型的应用[J].世界林业研究,2016,29(3):12-17.(JIN Haoran,MA Pingping,LIU Shenghe.Application of logistic regression model in the research on driving forces of forestland use change[J].World Forestry Research,2016,29(3):12-17.)
• [8] 傅强.基于GIS和Logistic回归的环首都经济圈土地利用变化机制研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2012(1):34-36.(FU Qiang.Study on land use change of economic zone around capital district based on GIS and logistic regress model[J].Territory & Natural Resources Study,2012(1):34-36.)
• [9] 牡丹,潮洛濛.鄂尔多斯市林地变化与社会经济驱动因素研究[J].环境科学与技术,2010(S2):98-101.(MU Dan,CHAO Luomeng.Changes of woodland in Ordos and research on social economy driving force[J].Environmental Science & Technology,2010(S2):98-101.)
• [10] 韩会然,杨成凤,宋金平.北京市土地利用变化特征及驱动机制[J].经济地理,2015,35(5):148-154.(HAN Huiran,YANG Chengefeng,SONG Jinping.The spatial-temporal charactistic of land use change in Beijing and its driving mechanism[J].Economic Geography,2015,35(5):148-154.)
• [11] 孟欢欢,李同昇,于正松,等.安徽省乡村发展类型及乡村性空间分异研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):144-148.(MENG Huanhaun,LI Tongsheng,YU Zhengsong,et al.Rurality and acorrelation analysis of the cuunty economy in Anhui province[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(4):144-148.)
• [12] GUIPING W U,ZENG Y,ZOU B,et al.Simulation on spatial land use patterns using autologistic method:a case study of Yongding County,Zhangjiajie[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(2):156-164.
• [13] 洪步庭.基于GIS技术的农村居民点空间演变特征及其影响因素研究[D].成都:四川师范大学,2014.(HONG Buting.Study on spatial pattern evolvement features and influencing factors of rural settlement based on GIS[D].Chengdu:Sichuan Normal University,2014.)
• [14] KJESBU S K S,RIGHTON D R,THORSEN A T,et al.Thermal dynamics of ovarian maturation in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences,2010,67(4):605-625.
• [15] 顾佳峰.中国县级市耕地资源的空间计量研究[J].软科学,2013,27(1):64-68.(GU Jiafeng.Research on spatial measurement of cultivated land resources in county-level cities in China[J].Soft Science,2013,27(1):64-68)
• [16] 夏清,杨武年.兴宾区土地利用变化遥感动态监测研究[J].测绘科学,2017,42(12):92-97.(XIA Qing,YANG Wunian.Study on dynamic monitoring of landuse changes in Xingbin district through RSt[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2017,42(12):92-97.)
• [17] 凌春丽,朱兰艳,吴俐民.WorldView-2影像林地信息提取的研究与实现[J].测绘科学,2010,35(5):205-207.(LING Chunli,ZHU Lanyan,WU Limin.The research and realization of the forest information extraction based on the WorldView-2 image[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2010,35(5):205-207.)
• [18] 陈启浩,刘修国,陈奇.多特征全极化合成孔径雷达的林地和居民地提取[J].测绘科学,2014,39(12):65-69.(CHEN Qihao,LIU Xiuguo,CHEN Qi.Woodland and building extraction from polarimetric SAR images by integrated multi-features[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2014,39(12):65-69.)
• [19] 侯贵荣,余新晓,刘自强,等.不同降雨强度下北京山区典型林地土壤水分时空变化特征[J].水土保持学报,2017,31(3):209-215.(HOU Guirong,YU Xinxiao,LIU Ziqiang,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of soil moisture in typical forest lands in Beijing Mountainous areas with different rainfall intensities[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,31(3):209-215.)
• [20] 罗卫,况润元.利用环境卫星影像的东江源地区果园信息提取[J].测绘科学,2014,39(8):135-139.(LUO Wei,KUANG Yunyuan.Orchard information extraction of Dongjiang source region with HJ satellite data[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2014,39(8):135-139.)
• [21] 周佳宁,张洁,李天宏.基于MODIS影像和随机森林算法的河北坝上林地动态监测[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2018,54(4):792-800.(ZHOU Jianing,ZHANG Jie,LI Tianhong.Bashang forest change monitoring with multi-temporal MODIS images and random forest algorithm[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2018,54(4):792-800.)