张振超;张军;袁德宝;杨恒;马生昀;

• 1:中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院
• 2:内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院
• 3:内蒙古农业大学理学院
• 4:河海大学地球科学与工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

针对传统的GM(1,1)模型在建筑(构筑)物形变和沉降预测中的灰色作用量恒定和背景值构造有偏差的缺陷,该文通过引入线性时间项的灰色作用量和广义加权构造最优背景值相结合的方法构建了优化背景值的时变参数GM(1,1)模型。以实际铁路沉降监测点的累计沉降监测数据为例,分别采用传统的GM(1,1)模型、时变参数GM(1,1)模型和优化背景值的时变参数GM(1,1)模型对观测数据进行了拟合和预测。结果表明,优化背景值的时变参数GM(1,1)模型的拟合和预测精度相比传统GM(1,1)模型和时变参数GM(1,1)模型有很大提高,适合于铁路沉降数据的监控和分析。研究结果可为铁路的沉降预测提供一定的参考价值。

关键词(KeyWords)： 沉降监测;背景值;时变参数;GM(1,1)模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目（71661027）;; 内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目（2018MS03047）;; 内蒙古农业大学教育教学改革研究重点项目（JGZD201815）

作者(Authors): 张振超;张军;袁德宝;杨恒;马生昀;

DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2020.03.007

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